Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorBaur, Susanne
dc.contributor.authorNauels, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorNicholls, Zebedee
dc.contributor.authorSanderson, Benjamin M.
dc.contributor.authorSchleussner, Carl-Friedrich
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-22T10:11:04Z
dc.date.available2024-02-22T10:11:04Z
dc.date.created2023-04-20T18:50:42Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.identifier.citationEarth System Dynamics (ESD). 2023, 14 (2), 367-381.en_US
dc.identifier.issn2190-4979
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/3119253
dc.description.abstractA growing body of literature investigates the effects of solar radiation modification (SRM) on global and regional climates. Previous studies have focused on the potentials and the side effects of SRM, with little attention being given to possible deployment timescales and the levels of carbon dioxide removal required for a phase out. Here, we investigate the deployment timescales of SRM and how they are affected by different levels of mitigation, net-negative emissions (NNEs) and climate uncertainty. We generate a large dataset of 355 emission scenarios in which SRM is deployed to keep warming levels at 1.5 C global mean temperature. Probabilistic climate projections from this ensemble result in a large range of plausible future warming and cooling rates that lead to various SRM deployment timescales. In all pathways consistent with extrapolated current ambition, SRM deployment would exceed 100 years even under the most optimistic assumptions regarding climate response. As soon as the temperature threshold is exceeded, neither mitigation nor NNEs or climate sensitivity alone can guarantee short deployment timescales. Since the evolution of mitigation under SRM, the availability of carbon removal technologies and the effects of climate reversibility will be mostly unknown at its initialisation time, it is impossible to predict how temporary SRM deployment would be. Any deployment of SRM therefore comes with the risk of multi-century legacies of deployment, implying multi-generational commitments of costs, risks and negative side effects of SRM and NNEs combined.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherEGUen_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleThe deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertaintyen_US
dc.title.alternativeThe deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertaintyen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.source.pagenumber367-381en_US
dc.source.volume14en_US
dc.source.journalEarth System Dynamics (ESD)en_US
dc.source.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/esd-14-367-2023
dc.identifier.cristin2142297
dc.relation.projectEC/H2020/101003687en_US
dc.relation.projectEC/H2020/820829en_US
dc.relation.projectEC/H2020/101003536en_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal