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dc.contributor.authorPoschlod, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorZscheischler, Jakob
dc.contributor.authorSillmann, Jana
dc.contributor.authorWood, Raul R.
dc.contributor.authorLudwig, Ralf
dc.coverage.spatialNorwayen_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-24T12:10:06Z
dc.date.available2021-08-24T12:10:06Z
dc.date.created2020-07-21T11:04:53Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.citationWeather and Climate Extremes. 2020, 28 .en_US
dc.identifier.issn2212-0947
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2770982
dc.description.abstractHydrometeorological compound events cause severe economical, societal and environmental damage, but their investigation is difficult as they occur rarely and are multivariate. Here we use 50 high-resolution climate simulations from the single model initial condition large ensemble CRCM5-LE to examine two such compound event types in southern Norway: (1) Heavy rainfall on saturated soil during the summer months (June, July, August, September; SES) and (2) Concurrent heavy rainfall and snowmelt (rain-on-snow; ROS). We compare present-day conditions (1980–2009) with future conditions under a high-emission scenario (2070–2099) and investigate the impact of climate change on the frequency and spatial distribution of SES and ROS events. We find that the probability of occurrence of SES events during the summer increases by 38% until 2070–2099 over the whole study area. The areas with the highest occurrence probability extend from the west coast into the interior. In contrast, the frequency of ROS is projected to decrease by 48% on average, largely driven by decreases in snowfall. Moreover, the spatial pattern of ROS are projected to change, with the most frequently affected areas shifting from the west coast towards the inner country. Our study highlights the benefits of single model large ensemble simulations for the analysis of compound events.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.subjectCompound eventsen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectLarge ensembleen_US
dc.subjectHeavy rainfallen_US
dc.subjectRain-on-snowen_US
dc.subjectSoil saturationen_US
dc.subjectNorwayen_US
dc.titleClimate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norwayen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.source.pagenumber0en_US
dc.source.volume28en_US
dc.source.journalWeather and Climate Extremesen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.wace.2020.100253
dc.identifier.cristin1819996
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 255037en_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1


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