• norsk
    • English
  • norsk 
    • norsk
    • English
  • Logg inn
Vis innførsel 
  •   Hjem
  • CICERO Senter for klimaforskning
  • Journal articles
  • Vis innførsel
  •   Hjem
  • CICERO Senter for klimaforskning
  • Journal articles
  • Vis innførsel
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Climate sensitivity estimates - Sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data

Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Aldrin, Magne Tommy; Holden, Marit; Myhre, Gunnar
Peer reviewed, Journal article
Published version
Thumbnail
Åpne
esd-9-879-2018.pdf (2.677Mb)
Permanent lenke
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2754841
Utgivelsesdato
2018
Metadata
Vis full innførsel
Samlinger
  • Journal articles [347]
Originalversjon
Earth System Dynamics. 2018, 9 (2), 879-894.   10.5194/esd-9-879-2018
Sammendrag
Inferred effective climate sensitivity (ECSinf) is estimated using a method combining radiative forcing (RF) time series and several series of observed ocean heat content (OHC) and near-surface temperature change in a Bayesian framework using a simple energy balance model and a stochastic model. The model is updated compared to our previous analysis by using recent forcing estimates from IPCC, including OHC data for the deep ocean, and extending the time series to 2014. In our main analysis, the mean value of the estimated ECSinf is 2.0 ∘C, with a median value of 1.9 ∘C and a 90 % credible interval (CI) of 1.2–3.1 ∘C. The mean estimate has recently been shown to be consistent with the higher values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by climate models. The transient climate response (TCR) is estimated to have a mean value of 1.4 ∘C (90 % CI 0.9–2.0 ∘C), and in our main analysis the posterior aerosol effective radiative forcing is similar to the range provided by the IPCC. We show a strong sensitivity of the estimated ECSinf to the choice of a priori RF time series, excluding pre-1950 data and the treatment of OHC data. Sensitivity analysis performed by merging the upper (0–700 m) and the deep-ocean OHC or using only one OHC dataset (instead of four in the main analysis) both give an enhancement of the mean ECSinf by about 50 % from our best estimate.
 
Climate sensitivity estimates - Sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data
 
Tidsskrift
Earth System Dynamics

Kontakt oss | Gi tilbakemelding

Personvernerklæring
DSpace software copyright © 2002-2019  DuraSpace

Levert av  Unit
 

 

Bla i

Hele arkivetDelarkiv og samlingerUtgivelsesdatoForfattereTitlerEmneordDokumenttyperTidsskrifterDenne samlingenUtgivelsesdatoForfattereTitlerEmneordDokumenttyperTidsskrifter

Min side

Logg inn

Statistikk

Besøksstatistikk

Kontakt oss | Gi tilbakemelding

Personvernerklæring
DSpace software copyright © 2002-2019  DuraSpace

Levert av  Unit