Trends in atmospheric methane concentrations since 1990 were driven and modified by anthropogenic emissions

Abstract

The atmospheric methane trend is not fully understood. Here we investigate the role of the main sink, the main natural source, and anthropogenic emissions on the methane growth rate over the last three decades using numerical models and emission inventories. We find that the long-term trend is driven by increased anthropogenic methane emissions, while wetland emissions show large variability and can modify the trend. The anthropogenic influence on hydroxyl radical, through nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide emissions, has modified the trend over the last decades and contributed to the atmospheric methane stabilization from 2000 to 2007. The hydroxyl radical increase prior to this stabilization period might have contributed to the decline in the isotopic ratio after 2007 due to the time dependent isotopic response of hydroxyl radical. Emission reductions due to COVID-19 restrictions via the influence on hydroxyl radical, possibly contributed to approximately two thirds of the increase in methane growth from 2019 to 2020.