Vis enkel innførsel

dc.contributor.authorKoven, Charles D
dc.contributor.authorSanderson, Benjamin M
dc.contributor.authorSwann, Abigail L S
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-22T09:47:51Z
dc.date.available2024-02-22T09:47:51Z
dc.date.created2023-03-30T14:57:13Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.identifier.citationEnvironmental Research Letters. 2023, 18 (1), .en_US
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/3119224
dc.description.abstractWe explore the response of the Earth’s coupled climate and carbon system to an idealized sequential addition and removal of CO2 to the atmosphere, following a symmetric and continuous emissions pathway, in contrast to the discontinuous emissions pathways that have largely informed our understanding of the climate response to net zero and net negative emissions to date. We find, using both an Earth system model and an ensemble of simple climate model realizations, that warming during the emissions reduction and negative emissions phases is defined by a combination of a proportionality of warming to cumulative emissions characterized by the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), and a deviation from that proportionality that is governed by the zero emissions commitment (ZEC). About half of the ZEC is realized before reaching zero emissions, and the ZEC thus also controls the timing between peak cumulative CO2 emissions and peak temperature, such that peak temperature may occur before peak cumulative emissions if ZEC is negative, underscoring the importance of ZEC in climate policies aimed to limit peak warming. Thus we argue that ZEC is better defined as the committed warming relative to the expected TCRE proportionality, rather than as the additional committed warming that will occur after reaching net zero CO2 emissions. Once established, the combined TCRE and ZEC relationship holds almost to complete removal of prior cumulative CO2 emissions. As cumulative CO2 emissions approach zero through negative CO2 emissions, CO2 concentrations drop below preindustrial values, while residual long-term climate change continues, governed by multicentennial dynamical processes.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherIOP publishingen_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleMuch of zero emissions commitment occurs before reaching net zero emissionsen_US
dc.title.alternativeMuch of zero emissions commitment occurs before reaching net zero emissionsen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.source.pagenumber0en_US
dc.source.volume18en_US
dc.source.journalEnvironmental Research Lettersen_US
dc.source.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/acab1a
dc.identifier.cristin2138588
dc.relation.projectEC/H2020/101003536)en_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode2


Tilhørende fil(er)

Thumbnail

Denne innførselen finnes i følgende samling(er)

Vis enkel innførsel

Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal
Med mindre annet er angitt, så er denne innførselen lisensiert som Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal