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dc.contributor.authorSamset, Bjørn Hallvard
dc.contributor.authorZhou, C.
dc.contributor.authorFuglestvedt, Jan S.
dc.contributor.authorLund, Marianne Tronstad
dc.contributor.authorMarotzke, J.
dc.contributor.authorZelinka, M.D.
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-10T08:46:37Z
dc.date.available2022-06-10T08:46:37Z
dc.date.created2022-04-09T14:57:58Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.identifier.citationNature Communications. 2022, 13 (1), 1578-?.en_US
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2998275
dc.description.abstractThe rate of global surface warming is crucial for tracking progress towards global climate targets, but is strongly influenced by interannual-to-decadal variability, which precludes rapid detection of the temperature response to emission mitigation. Here we use a physics based Green’s function approach to filter out modulations to global mean surface temperature from sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns, and show that it results in an earlier emergence of a response to strong emissions mitigation. For observed temperatures, we find a filtered 2011–2020 surface warming rate of 0.24 °C per decade, consistent with long-term trends. Unfiltered observations show 0.35 °C per decade, partly due to the El Nino of 2015–2016. Pattern filtered warming rates can become a strong tool for the climate community to inform policy makers and stakeholder communities about the ongoing and expected climate responses to emission reductions, provided an effort is made to improve and validate standardized Green’s functions.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Nature Ltden_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleEarlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variabilityen_US
dc.title.alternativeEarlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variabilityen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.source.pagenumber1578-?en_US
dc.source.volume13en_US
dc.source.journalNature Communicationsen_US
dc.source.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-022-29247-y
dc.identifier.cristin2016370
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 248834en_US
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 324182en_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode2


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Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal