Description of a 1.5°C scenario with chosen measures

Abstract

In the Paris Agreement, it was agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. At the follow-up meeting in Glasgow in 2021, the goal was strengthened to 1.5°C. Based on previous studies and a review of the relevant policies and measures to achieve the 1.5°C target, this report describes one specific 1.5°C scenario with chosen measures that will be used in three models, i.e., a global macroeconomic computable general equilibrium model GRACE, a global energy market model FRISBEE, and a Norwegian macroeconometric model KVARTS. Our chosen 1.5°C pathway follows roughly the pathway of total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels combustion in the Net Zero Emission scenario by the International Energy Agency. We present possible supply-side and demand-side measures in the energy sectors that can be implemented to reduce CO2-emissions to achieve the 1.5°C target. We also discuss to what extent we will implement these policies and measures in the three models.