Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble
Coppola, Erika; Nogherotto, Rita; Ciarlo', James M.; Giorgi, Filippo; Van Meijgaard, Erik; Kadygrov, N.; Iles, Carley; Corre, Lola; Sandstad, Marit; Somot, Samuel; Nabat, Pierre; Vautard, Robert; Levavasseur, Guillaume; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Sillmann, Jana; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Boberg, Fredrik; Sørland, Silje Lund; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Bülow, Katharina; Teichmann, Claas; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker
Journal article, Peer reviewed
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- Journal articles 
Original versionJournal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. 2021, 126 (4), . 10.1029/2019JD032356
This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO-CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 members) at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global climate models (GCMs). The RCM ensemble results are compared with the driving CMIP5 global models but also with a subset of available last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected by all ensembles in Northern Europe in winter, along with a maximum precipitation increase there; in summer, maximum warming occurs in the Mediterranean and Southern European regions associated with a maximum precipitation decrease. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the largest signals, both for temperature and precipitation, along with the largest inter-model spread. There is a high model consensus across the ensembles on an increase of extreme precipitation and drought frequency in the Mediterranean region. Extreme temperature indices show an increase of heat extremes and a decrease of cold extremes, with CMIP6 showing the highest values and EURO-CORDEX the finest spatial details. This data set of unprecedented size and quality will provide the basis for impact assessment and climate service activities for the European region.