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dc.contributor.authorSkeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt
dc.contributor.authorPeters, Glen Philip
dc.contributor.authorFuglestvedt, Jan S.
dc.contributor.authorAndrew, Robbie
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-26T13:08:32Z
dc.date.available2022-04-26T13:08:32Z
dc.date.created2022-02-09T10:19:38Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.citationClimatic Change. 2021, 164 (1-2), .en_US
dc.identifier.issn0165-0009
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2992880
dc.description.abstractCountries’ historical contributions to climate change have been on the agenda for more than two decades and will most likely continue to be an element in future international discussions and negotiations on climate. Previous studies have quantified the historical contributions to climate change across a range of choices and assumptions. In contrast, we quantify how historical contributions to changes in global mean surface temperature (GMST) may change in the future for a broad set of choices using the quantification of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We calculate the contributions for five coarse geographical regions used in the SSPs. Historical emissions of long-lived gases remain important for future contributions to warming, due to their accumulation and the inertia of climate system, and historical emissions are even more important for strong mitigation scenarios. When only accounting for future emissions, from 2015 to 2100, there is surprisingly little variation in the regional contributions to GMST change between the different SSPs and different mitigation targets. The largest variability in the regional future contributions is found across the different integrated assessment models (IAMs). This suggests the characteristics of the IAMs are more important for calculated future historical contributions than variations across SSP or forcing target.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSpringerLinken_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleA future perspective of historical contributions to climate changeen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.source.pagenumber0en_US
dc.source.volume164en_US
dc.source.journalClimatic Changeen_US
dc.source.issue1-2en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10584-021-02982-9
dc.identifier.cristin1999367
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1


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