Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorSmith, Christopher J.
dc.contributor.authorHarris, Glen R.
dc.contributor.authorPalmer, Matthew D.
dc.contributor.authorBellouin, Nicolas
dc.contributor.authorCollins, William J.
dc.contributor.authorMyhre, Gunnar
dc.contributor.authorSchulz, Michael
dc.contributor.authorGolaz, Jean-Christophe
dc.contributor.authorRinger, Mark
dc.contributor.authorStorelvmo, Trude
dc.contributor.authorForster, Piers M.
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-08T14:14:57Z
dc.date.available2021-11-08T14:14:57Z
dc.date.created2021-08-04T13:21:44Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. 2021, 126 (13), .en_US
dc.identifier.issn2169-897X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2828429
dc.description.abstractAn observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present-day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near-surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m−2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2-4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m−2. There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m−2 decade−1) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons, Inc.en_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleEnergy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivityen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.source.pagenumber0en_US
dc.source.volume126en_US
dc.source.journalJournal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheresen_US
dc.source.issue13en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2020JD033622
dc.identifier.cristin1923868
dc.relation.projectEC/H2020/641816en_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode2


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal