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dc.contributor.authorSprinz, Detlef
dc.contributor.authorde Mesquita, Bruce Bueno
dc.contributor.authorKallbekken, Steffen
dc.contributor.authorStokman, Frans
dc.contributor.authorSælen, Håkon
dc.contributor.authorThomson, Robert
dc.date.accessioned2018-01-26T13:33:14Z
dc.date.available2018-01-26T13:33:14Z
dc.date.created2016-08-30T11:12:33Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.citationPolitics and Governance. 2016, 4 (3), 172-187.
dc.identifier.issn2183-2463
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/2479944
dc.description.abstractWe examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.titlePredicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations
dc.typePeer reviewed
dc.typeJournal article
dc.description.versionpublishedVersion
dc.source.pagenumber172-187
dc.source.volume4
dc.source.journalPolitics and Governance
dc.source.issue3
dc.identifier.doi10.17645/pag.v4i3.654
dc.identifier.cristin1376591
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 209701
cristin.unitcode7475,0,0,0
cristin.unitnameCICERO Senter for klimaforskning
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1


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