Towards assessing socioeconomic impacts of climate change in Norway - Sensitivity in the primary sectors: fisheries, agriculture and forestry

Abstract

This report pulls together existing information that describes the economic composition and regional distribution of the fisheries, agriculture and forestry sectors in Norway and how they might be influenced by climate change. The information collected here demonstrates that all three sectors are likely to simultaneously experience both positive and negative impacts of climate change, but also indicates that the question of overall impacts from climate change to one sector is largely unexamined. Positive impacts expected include increased growth rates and productivity, due to warmer temperatures and higher concentrations of CO2. Another element is the increased potential for exploiting new species as well as the geographical expansion of areas suitable for either fishing, agriculture or forestry activities. However, these positive impacts can partly be outplayed by negative impacts such as increased damage or loss from severe weather events, such as storms and frost, and from increased occurrence of pests/diseases. Increased frequency of storms might lead to higher losses from escapes of fish in aquaculture and storms in combination with more severe frost can increase the forestry sector’s problems with frost damage and breakage of trees. Warmer temperatures are expected to lead to more problems of weeds, pests and fungi in agriculture and bark beetles and other pests in forestry.