Climate change in Norway: Analysis of economic and social impacts and adaptations

Abstract

In this report, we review the findings from a number of studies carried out between 2000 and 2004 in order to shed light on the likely socioeconomic impacts of climate change in Norway. These studies have been aimed at: first, developing a methodological framework for impacts and vulnerability analysis; second, identifying the most vulnerable sectors and regions of Norway and identifying the main factors that contribute to this vulnerability; third, identifying vulnerability to greenhouse gas mitigation policies; and fourth, analyzing the institutional structures that promote or constrain adaptation. We conclude that vulnerability to climate change is highly differentiated between regions and sectors. Many climate impacts are only likely to be visible once thresholds are surpassed. While Norway has sometimes been regarded as a potential winner from increased warming, analysis of the social and economic circumstances of climate change impacts shows that there are important barriers to adaptation that may exacerbate negative impacts in certain sectors and regions. Moving forward with these findings implies increased focus on multi-method, multi-scale and interdisciplinary research. In particular, the most important climate impacts may not be captured in studies focusing on a single system, sector or scale.