Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in Norway
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- CICERO Working Papers 
Climate change is likely to affect agricultural productivity. In this study, a biophysical statistical model is used to analyze the relationship between yields of potatoes, barley, oats and wheat per decare, and temperature (growing degree days) and precipitation, for the period 1958–2001 at county level in Norway. If a climate signal can be detected at county level this should be of interest for climate policy planners, agricultural authorities and farmers preparing for a warmer climate. We find that in 18 % of (the crop and county) cases there is a positive impact on yield from increased temperature. In the case of crops the effect is strongest for potatoes. Regionally, the correlations are strongest in Northern Norway, where temperature is likely to be more important as a limiting factor for crop growth than other regions of the country. The effect of increased precipitation is negative in 20 % of the cases, which could be due to excess soil moisture or reduced sun radiation associated with more cloud cover. Predictions based on the RegClim scenario for 2040 indicate that potato yields will increase by around 30% in Northern Norway, which amounts to about 9 million NOK annually.