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dc.contributor.authorCain, Michelle
dc.contributor.authorJenkins, Stuart
dc.contributor.authorAllen, Myles R.
dc.contributor.authorLynch, John
dc.contributor.authorFrame, David J.
dc.contributor.authorMacEy, Adrian H.
dc.contributor.authorPeters, Glen Philip
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-13T12:35:42Z
dc.date.available2022-06-13T12:35:42Z
dc.date.created2022-04-26T14:29:48Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.identifier.citationPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2022, 380 (2215), .en_US
dc.identifier.issn1364-503X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2998544
dc.description.abstractMeeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH4)-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions. By contrast, reducing CH4 emissions starts to reverse CH4-induced warming within a few decades. These differences are hidden when framing climate mitigation using annual ‘CO2-equivalent’ emissions, including targets based on aggregated annual emission rates. We show how the different warming responses to CO2 and CH4 emissions can be accurately aggregated to estimate warming by using ‘warming-equivalent emissions', which provide a transparent and convenient method to inform policies and measures for mitigation, or demonstrate progress towards a temperature goal. The method presented (GWP*) uses well-established climate science concepts to relate GWP100 to temperature, as a simple proxy for a climate model. The use of warming-equivalent emissions for nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal, compared to the use of standard equivalence methods.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherThe Royal Society publishingen_US
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleMethane and the Paris Agreement temperature goalsen_US
dc.title.alternativeMethane and the Paris Agreement temperature goalsen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.source.pagenumber0en_US
dc.source.volume380en_US
dc.source.journalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciencesen_US
dc.source.issue2215en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rsta.2020.0456
dc.identifier.cristin2019239
dc.relation.projectEC/H2020/821205en_US
dc.relation.projectEC/H2020/820846en_US
dc.relation.projectEC/H2020/821003en_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode2


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