• Climate-driven chemistry and aerosol feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth system models 

      Thornhill, Gillian; Collins, William J.; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo; Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Archibald, Alexander T.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Checa-Garcia, Ramiro; Fiedler, Stephanie; Folberth, Gerd; Gjermundsen, Ada; Horowitz, Larry; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Michou, Martine; Mulcahy, Jane; Nabat, Pierre; Naik, Vaishali; M. O'Connor, Fiona; Paulot, Fabien; Schulz, Michael; Scott, Catherine E.; Séférian, Roland; Smith, Christopher J.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Tilmes, Simone; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Weber, James (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Feedbacks play a fundamental role in determining the magnitude of the response of the climate system to external forcing, such as from anthropogenic emissions. The latest generation of Earth system models includes aerosol ...
    • The effect of rapid adjustments to halocarbons and N2O on radiative forcing 

      Hodnebrog, Øivind; Myhre, Gunnar; Kramer, Ryan J.; Shine, Keith P.; Andrews, Timothy; Faluvegi, Greg; Kasoar, Matthew; Kirkevåg, Alf; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Mülmenstädt, Johannes; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Shindell, Drew; Smith, Christopher J.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Voulgarakis, Apostolos (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Rapid adjustments occur after initial perturbation of an external climate driver (e.g., CO2) and involve changes in, e.g. atmospheric temperature, water vapour and clouds, independent of sea surface temperature changes. ...
    • Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity 

      Smith, Christopher J.; Harris, Glen R.; Palmer, Matthew D.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Collins, William J.; Myhre, Gunnar; Schulz, Michael; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Ringer, Mark; Storelvmo, Trude; Forster, Piers M. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models ...
    • Interactions between atmospheric composition and climate change - progress in understanding and future opportunities from AerChemMIP, PDRMIP, and RFMIP 

      Fiedler, Stephanie; Naik, Vaishali; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Smith, Christopher J.; Griffiths, Paul; Kramer, Ryan J.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Allen, Robert J.; Im, Ulas; Kasoar, Matthew; Modak, Angshuman; Turnock, Steven; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Watson-Parris, Duncan; Westervelt, Daniel M.; Wilcox, Laura J.; Zhao, Alcide; Collins, William J.; Schulz, Michael; Myhre, Gunnar; Forster, Piers M. (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2024)
      The climate science community aims to improve our understanding of climate change due to anthropogenic influences on atmospheric composition and the Earth's surface. Yet not all climate interactions are fully understood, ...
    • The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures 

      Kikstra, Jarmo S.; Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.; Smith, Christopher J.; Lewis, Jared; Lamboll, Robin D.; Byers, Edward; Sandstad, Marit; Meinshausen, Malte; Gidden, Matthew J.; Rogelj, Joeri; Kriegler, Elmar; Peters, Glen Philip; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Wienpahl, Laura; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Van Der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar; Al Khourdajie, Alaa; Forster, Piers M.; Reisinger, Andy; Schaeffer, Roberto; Riahi, Keywan (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)
      While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment ...
    • Observational Evidence of Increasing Global Radiative Forcing 

      Kramer, Ryan J.; He, Haozhe; Soden, Brian J.; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Myhre, Gunnar; Forster, Piers M.; Smith, Christopher J. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Changes in atmospheric composition, such as increasing greenhouse gases, cause an initial radiative imbalance to the climate system, quantified as the instantaneous radiative forcing. This fundamental metric has not been ...
    • A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: Towards representative emission pathways (REPs) 

      Meinshausen, Malte; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Beyer, Kathleen; Bodeker, Greg; Boucher, Olivier; Canadell, Josep G.; Daniel, John S.; Diongue-Niang, Aïda; Driouech, Fatima; Fischer, Erich; Forster, Piers; Grose, Michael; Hansen, Gerrit; Hausfather, Zeke; Ilyina, Tatiana; Kikstra, Jarmo S.; Kimutai, Joyce; King, Andrew D.; Lee, June-Yi; Lennard, Chris; Lissner, Tabea; Nauels, Alexander; Peters, Glen Philip; Pirani, Anna; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Pörtner, Hans; Rogelj, Joeri; Rojas, Maisa; Roy, Joyashree; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Sanderson, Benjamin; Séférian, Roland; Seneviratne, Sonia; Smith, Christopher J.; Szopa, Sophie; Thomas, Adelle; Urge-Vorsatz, Diana; Velders, Guus J. M.; Yokohata, Tokuta; Ziehn, Tilo; Nicholls, Zebedee (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2024)
      In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well ...
    • Radiative forcing of climate change from the Copernicus reanalysis of atmospheric composition 

      Bellouin, Nicolas; Davies, William H.; P. Shine, Keith; Quaas, Johannes; Mülmenstädt, Johannes; M. Forster, Piers; Smith, Christopher J.; Lee, Lindsay; Regayre, Leighton; Brasseur, Guy; Sudarchikova, Natalia; Bouarar, Idir; Boucher, Olivier; Myhre, Gunnar (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Radiative forcing provides an important basis for understanding and predicting global climate changes, but its quantification has historically been done independently for different forcing agents, has involved observations ...
    • Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections 

      Nicholls, Z.; Meinshausen, Malte; Lewis, J.; Corradi, M. Rojas; Dorheim, K.; Gasser, Thomas; Gieseke, R.; Hope, A.P.; Leach, N.J.; McBride, L.A.; Quilcaille, Y.; Rogelj, Joeri; Salawitch, Ross J.; Samset, B.H.; Sandstad, Marit; Shiklomanov, A.; Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Smith, Christopher J.; Smith, Steven J.; Su, X.; Tsutsui, J.; Vega-Westhoff, B.; Woodard, D.L. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex ...
    • Surface warming and wetting due to methane’s long-wave radiative effects muted by short-wave absorption 

      Allen, Robert J.; Zhao, Xueying; Randles, Cynthia A.; Kramer, Ryan J.; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Smith, Christopher J. (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)
      Although greenhouse gases absorb primarily long-wave radiation, they also absorb short-wave radiation. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of methane short-wave absorption, which enhances its stratospherically ...