• From Hazard to Risk 

      Sillmann, Jana; Russo, Simone; Sippel, Sebastian; Alnes, Kristina (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2018)
    • Future changes in atmospheric rivers and Extreme precipitation in Norway 

      Whan, Kirien; Sillmann, Jana; Schaller, Nathalie; Haarsma, Reindert J. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Flooding events associated with extreme precipitation have had large impacts in Norway. It is well known that these Heavy precipitation events afecting Norway (and other parts of Europe) are strongly associated with ...
    • Global Economic Responses to Heat Stress Impacts on Worker Productivity in Crop Production 

      Orlov, Anton; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Sillmann, Jana; Thiery, Wim; Douzal, Clara; Lejeune, Quentin; Schleussner, Carl (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)
      The impacts of climate change on the food system are a key concern for societies and policy makers globally. Assessments of the biophysical impacts of crop productivity show modest but uncertain impacts. But crop growth ...
    • Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk 

      Russo, Simone; Sillmann, Jana; Sippel, Sebastian; Barcikowska, Monika J.; Ghisetti, Claudia; Smid, Marek; O'Neill, Brian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019)
      While every society can be exposed to heatwaves, some people suffer far less harm and recover more quickly than others from their occurrence. Here we project indicators of global heatwave risk associated with global warming ...
    • Heat Stress Indicators in CMIP6: Estimating Future Trends and Exceedances of Impact-Relevant Thresholds 

      Schwingshackl, Clemens; Sillmann, Jana; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana; Sandstad, Marit; Aunan, Kristin (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)
      Global warming is leading to increased heat stress in many regions around the world. An extensive number of heat stress indicators (HSIs) has been developed to measure the associated impacts on human health. Here we ...
    • Impact of strong and extreme El Niños on European hydroclimate 

      King, Martin Peter; Yu, Entao; Sillmann, Jana (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      The question of European hydroclimate anomaly associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is revisited by composite analyses on data from Dai et al.’s Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Old World Drought Atlas ...
    • Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment 

      Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James; Duncan, Melanie; Dunne, Anna; Hananel, Cédric; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Tijssen, Annegien; Torresan, Silvia; Ciurean, Roxana Liliana; Gill, Joel C.; Sillmann, Jana; Couasnon, Anaïs; Koks, Elco; Padrón-Fumero, Noemi; Tatman, Sharon; Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Adesiyun, Adewole; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Alabaster, Alexander; Bulder, Bernard; Campillo Torres, Carlos; Critto, Andrea; Hernández-Martín, Raúl; MacHado, Marta; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Orth, Rene; Palomino Antolín, Irene; Petrescu, Eva-Cristina; Reichstein, Markus; Tiggeloven, Timothy; Van Loon, Anne F.; Vuong Pham, Hung; De Ruiter, Marleen C. (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)
      Whilst the last decades have seen a clear shift in emphasis from managing natural hazards to managing risk, the majority of natural-hazard risk research still focuses on single hazards. Internationally, there are calls for ...
    • Lessons from COVID-19 for managing transboundary climate risks and building resilience 

      Ringsmuth, Andrew K.; Otto, Ilona M.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lahn, Glada; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Carter, Timothy R.; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Monasterolo, Irene; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Benzie, Magnus; Campiglio, Emanuele; Fronzek, Stefan; Gaupp, Franziska; Jarzabek, Lukasz; Klein, Richard J.T.; Knaepen, Hanne; Mechler, Reinhard; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Sillmann, Jana; Stuparu, Dana; West, Chris (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      COVID-19 has revealed how challenging it is to manage global, systemic and compounding crises. Like COVID-19, climate change impacts, and maladaptive responses to them, have potential to disrupt societies at multiple scales ...
    • Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change 

      Shiogama, Hideo; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Murakami, Daisuke; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Emori, Seita; Kubota, Izumi; Abe, Manabu; Imada, Yukiko; Watanabe, Masahiro; Mitchell, Daniel; Schaller, Nathalie; Sillmann, Jana; Fischer, Erich; Scinocca, John F.; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Takakura, Jun'ya; Trautmann, Tim; Döll, Petra; Ostberg, Sebastian; Schmied, Hannes Müller; Saeed, Fahad; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019)
      Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2 °C ...
    • Local biomass burning is a dominant cause of the observed precipitation reduction in southern Africa 

      Hodnebrog, Øivind; Myhre, Gunnar; Forster, Piers M.; Sillmann, Jana; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2016)
      Observations indicate a precipitation decline over large parts of southern Africa since the 1950s. Concurrently, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols have increased due to anthropogenic activities. ...
    • MSc: Changes in radiative forcing due to clear-cutting in Sweden; PhD: The role of land-atmosphere interactions on temperature variability and extremes in Fennoscandia 

      Mužić, Iris; Vestin, Patrik; Lindroth, Anders; Mölder, Meelis; Biermann, Tobias; Heliasz, Michal; Rinne, Janne; Berntsen, Terje Koren; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Sillmann, Jana; Yilmaz, Yeliz A. (Poster, 2021)
    • Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus 

      Sillmann, Jana; Donat, M. G.; Fyfe, J. C.; Zwiers, F. W. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2014)
      The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been ...
    • Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events 

      Schaer, Christoph; Ban, Nikolina; Fischer, Erich M.; Rajczak, Jan; Schmidli, Juerg; Frei, Christoph; Giorgi, Filippo; Karl, Thomas R.; Kendon, Elisabeth J.; Klein Tank, Albert M. G.; O'Gorman, Paul A.; Sillmann, Jana; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2016)
      Many climate studies assess trends and projections in heavy precipitation events using precipitation percentile (or quantile) indices. Here we investigate three different percentile indices that are commonly used. We ...
    • Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: Cascading effects and telecoupling 

      Franzke, Christian L. E.; Ciullo, Alessio; Gilmore, Elisabeth A.; Matias, Denise Margaret; Nagabhatla, Nidhi; Orlov, Anton; Paterson, Shona K.; Scheffran, Jürgen; Sillmann, Jana (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)
      The Earth system and the human system are intrinsically linked. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to the climate crisis, which is causing unprecedented extreme events and could trigger Earth system tipping ...
    • Physical modeling supporting a storyline approach 

      Sillmann, Jana; Shepherd, Ted; Hurk, Bart van den; Hazeleger, Wilco; Martius, Olivia; Zscheischler, Jakob (CICERO Policy note;2019:01, Working paper, 2019)
      The concept of analyzing and communicating high-impact events in the climate change context via storylines has recently gained popularity in the climate modeling community. For instance, the use of case studies or storylines ...
    • Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe 

      Schuhen, Nina; Schaller, Nathalie; Bloomfield, Hannah C.; Brayshaw, David J.; Lledó, Llorenç; Cionni, Irene; Sillmann, Jana (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)
      European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia, and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze ...
    • Representing storylines with causal networks to support decision making: Framework and example 

      Kunimitsu, Taro; Baldissera Pacchetti, Marina; Ciullo, Alessio; Sillmann, Jana; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Taner, Mehmet Ümit; van den Hurk, Bart (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2023)
      Physical climate storylines, which are physically self-consistent unfoldings of events or pathways, have been powerful tools in understanding regional climate impacts. We show how embedding physical climate storylines into ...
    • The role of spatial and temporal model resolution in a flood event storyline approach in western Norway 

      Schaller, Nathalie; Sillmann, Jana; Müller, Malte; Haarsma, Reindert; Hazeleger, Wilco; Hegdahl, Trine Jahr; Kelder, Timo; van den Oord, Gijs; Weerts, Albrecht; Whan, Kirien (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      We apply a physical climate storyline approach to an autumn flood event in the West Coast of Norway caused by an atmospheric river to demonstrate the value and challenges of higher spatial and temporal resolution in ...
    • Scientific data from precipitation driver response model intercomparison project 

      Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Forster, Piers M.; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Sandstad, Marit; Mohr, Christian Wilhelm; Stjern, Camilla Weum; Sillmann, Jana; Andrews, Timothy; Boucher, Olivier; Faluvegi, Gregory; Iversen, Trond; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Kasoar, Matthew; Kirkevåg, Alf; Kramer, Ryan J.; Liu, Longbo; Mülmenstädt, Johannes; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo; Quaas, Johannes; Richardson, Thomas B.; Shawki, Dilshad; Shindell, Drew; Smith, Chris; Stier, Philip; Tang, Tao; Takemura, Toshihiko; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Watson-Parris, Duncan (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2022)
      This data descriptor reports the main scientific values from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). The purpose of the GCM simulations has been ...
    • Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe 

      Otero, Noelia; Sillmann, Jana; Schnell, Jordan; Rust, Henning W.; Butler, Tim (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2016)
      The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998–2012 using a new interpolated ...